Leadership in VUCA Times

Last week, I spent two days in a workshop entitled: ‘A Paradigm Shift: Creative & Critical Thinking In A Transformational Era’. It was led by Dr. Rich McConnell, a professor at the U.S. Army Command and General Staff College. I took the course because the US Army is recognized as being at the forefront of leadership training and development in the world. It was arranged — and co-led — by my colleague Linda Martin of Linda Martin Results.

The course was extremely well done and very thought provoking. The context for the course was the VUCA world that we all live and work in — VUCA being an acronym for Volatile, Uncertain, Complex, and Ambiguous. The workshop examined how leaders need to develop different cognitive tools and thinking skills in order to thrive in this kind of environment.

Seeing Through the Fog

The workshop was built around an article from the January/February 2021 issue of the Military Review by Dr. McConnell and colleagues: ‘Seeing through the Fog: Developing Fog of War Resistant Visualization.’ It explores how leaders can develop visualization skills robust enough to withstand the uncertainty and stress of complex situations — like the ones many business leaders find themselves in now.

The article begins with a story from Malcolm Gladwell’s ‘Blink,’ where a fire lieutenant’s intuition saves lives by sensing danger before consciously understanding it. This anecdote illustrates how intuitive and cognitive processes combine in effective visualization — decisions emerge from both training (cognition) and accumulated experience (intuition). The authors stress that leaders in every field must navigate ambiguity and make meaning out of environmental signals just as military leaders do.

Intellectual Bracketing

The article introduces the notion of ‘intellectual bracketing,’ a model where leaders move from raw data (clues) to information, analyze to create knowledge, and finally apply judgment to achieve understanding. This iterative approach blends the art of intuition with the science of rational analysis. The Battle of Midway in WWII is cited as a historical case: U.S. Navy cryptanalyst Joseph Rochefort intuited the meaning of the Japanese code ‘AF’ as referring to Midway Island, ultimately giving the Allies a decisive advantage.

Resilient visualization — the key concept of the article — is described as the ability to maintain thinking skills and decision-making even under adversity. Building resilience involves not just recovering from setbacks, but actively seeking new and challenging experiences to expand capacity.

Organizational Culture and the Growth Mindset

The authors argue that resilient visualization depends on organizational culture. Carol Dweck’s ‘growth mindset’ concept is introduced to suggest that organizations must foster environments where learning and experimentation are valued. Daniel Pink’s research on intrinsic motivation is similarly used to show that leaders who cultivate autonomy, mastery, and purpose can drive innovation and independent thinking — both essential for navigating uncertainty.